Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? by Graham Allison

In his book Destined for War, renowned security analyst Graham Allison explores a dangerous phenomenon known as Thucydides’s Trap, where a rising power threatens a dominant power and could potentially lead to war. He warns that the United States and China are fast approaching the brink of such a devastating conflict, unless both sides can make substantial changes in policy and behavior.

The Thucydides’s Trap first gained prominence in 431 BCE when the Greek historian Thucydides wrote about the Peloponnesian War. He attributed the conflict to an established power (Athens) rivaling a growing power (Sparta). Thucydides asserted that when a dominant power is thwarted by a rising power, war is almost certain without some sort of intervention.

In Destined for War, Graham Allison uses Thucydides's Trap to explain the current tensions between the United States and China. He argues that both powers have driven themselves closer towards the brink of war, taking actions that created a zero-sum dynamic, where one country gains at the expense of the other, such as the tariff dispute between the two countries.

Allison explains that the only way the United States and China can avoid war is with both sides making active and conscious efforts to alter policies and behavior. Through his analysis of history, Allison suggests that both powerhouses must be willing to compromise and recognize each other as rightful equals on the global stage, or else risk severe, long-term consequences.

Furthermore, Allison also explains how despite a strong record of relationship building, progress has often been outweighed by negative circumstances. He uses a three prong formula for change, which includes revision of the security dilemma, revision of the narrative, and enhancement of mutual understanding between the two powers.

To begin with, Allison claims that the security dilemma between the United States and China was created by both sides over time as they vie for greater influence in the Asia-Pacific region. The security dilemma is that if one side takes an action perceived as threatening by the other, then there could be a war in response. In order to break this dynamic, he suggests that both countries should address the credible drivers of instability. For instance, there would need to be a common identification of the most threatening military hardware and an acceptance of mutual military transparency, to reduce the risk of miscalculations.

Secondly, Allison recommends a revision of the narrative between the two states. Currently, the United States portrays China as an enemy, while China continues to focus on its own internal interests. He explains that both sides must focus on constructing a cooperative future instead of a conflictual past. This will require China to understand the U.S.’s concerns, while the U.S. must honestly listen to and consider China’s concerns.

Lastly, he underscores the importance of an increase in mutual understanding between the two countries. Allison stresses that China should embrace the U.S’s view on the global balance of power and vice versa. However, he also cautions that simply increasing the amount of communication between the two sides will not be enough. In order to successfully prevent war, there must be effective communication, empathy, and respect between the two countries.

In the end, Destined for War provides an in-depth analysis of the ever-growing tension between the United States and China, and offers much-needed understanding into the mentalities of both nations. While Allison expresses his difficulty in finding real solutions to potentially stop a war between the world’s two greatest powers, he offers hope that such a war can be avoided through the adoption of his three prong approach. Through a clearer understanding of this problem, hopefully the U.S. and China will be able to find a way to avoid the Thucydides’s Trap, and secure a peaceful and prosperous relationship between the two nations.