If Then: How the Simulmatics Corporation Invented the Future by Jill Lepore

Jill Lepore has written a compelling new book, “If Then: How the Simulmatics Corporation Invented the Future”, which chronicles the history of the pioneering computer-simulation company created in 1959 and its dramatic fall from grace in the late 1960s. In this gripping narrative, Lepore examines the history of Simulmatics and its short-lived impact on computing, politics, and society.

Simulmatics Corporation was founded by two scientists, Ed Kantor and Julian Bigelow, who were inspired by the idea of using computers to make predictions and simulations of how people would behave in certain scenarios. Kantor and Bigelow envisioned a new kind of computing that promised to revolutionize the way people made decisions and interact with one another.

The Simulmatics team created the first publicist-style simulation program for the 1964 presidential election. This program was used to predict voters' behavior using data from the previous two elections. Unfortunately, the results were far from accurate. Simulmatics was highly criticized for its incorrect predictions, but it still had an impact on computing and politics.

The next use of Simulmatics’ simulation capabilities was in the early stages of the Vietnam War. Simulmatics used its computer models to forecast the outcome of the US’ expansion of the conflict, but the results were just as wrong as its first prediction. Simulmatics' investors began to realize the potential for failure, and the company began to lose favor with many social and political leaders.

Throughout the 1960s and 1970s, Simulmatics' technology continued to be used for research projects, in fields such as demographics, economics, and sociology. But its once-promising future was overshadowed by scandal and failure. By the end of the decade, Simulmatics had gone bankrupt, unable to remain competitive in an ever-changing technological landscape.

In this compelling book, Lepore examines the role Simulmatics had in the development of computer simulation and its impact on computing, politics, and society in the US. While it can be argued that Simulmatics had limited success, the company’s short-lived impact made possible advances that shaped the future of computing and shaped the modern world.

Lepore’s work is an important exploration of the incredible impact of the Simulmatics Corporation. She delves into the company’s legacy in a way that offers insight, perspective, and context for the role of computers and technology in modern life.

Despite Simulmatics’ ultimate failure, the company’s legacy remains an important reminder of the power of innovation and how far computers have come in the past 60 years. “If Then: How the Simulmatics Corporation Invented the Future” is a fascinating and enlightening read for anyone interested in the social, political, and economic history of computing.