Stumbling on Happiness by Daniel Gilbert is a book about understanding the human tendency to make inaccurate predictions about the future and how this affects our overall happiness. In this book, Gilbert explains that our tendency to overestimate our ability to accurately predict the future, often leads us down a “futile and self-defeating” path. By examining why we are so wrong when it comes to predicting our own future, Gilbert provides a unique and entertaining perspective on the sources of human happiness.
The book begins with an anecdotal story about a man who falls asleep in a chair while trying to predict the future. Gilbert uses this as an example to illustrate the difficulty of accurately predicting the future, no matter how hard we may try. He then delves into this topic more deeply by presenting various research studies which question our ability to make accurate predictions. He examines why we tend to overestimate our ability to accurately predict how different situations will make us feel in the future.
For instance, Gilbert discusses the idea of hedonic adaptation, which is our tendency to become accustomed to certain things over time and hence, to no longer appreciate them as much as we initially did. His research demonstrates that for many people, our ability to accurately predict the future of a given activity or situation is hindered by our tendency to become quickly accustomed to it. As a result, we may not realize how much pleasure we can derive from it until it's too late.
Gilbert then expands his discussion to examine how our tendency to miscalculate our future pleasure can lead us to make decisions which make us less happy than we would have been had we made different decisions. For example, he examines how our inability to accurately predict how long we will remain in a job, or how happy we will be with a particular partner, can lead to haphazard decision-making which can in turn lead to regret and unhappiness.
Gilbert then takes a look at the science of happiness—studying what factors can lead to greater contentment and satisfaction. He examines the effects of different life choices and how those choices can either lead to greater or lesser degrees of happiness. He also looks at the effects of the pursuit of material possessions and the effect it has on our overall satisfaction.
Throughout the book, Gilbert humorously illustrates the difficulty of making accurate predictions in a well-researched and thoughtful way. Rather than presenting a preachy lecture about why it’s so hard to accurately predict the future, he instead presents a fascinating and entertaining look at the science behind happiness and how it affects our ability to make accurate predictions about the future. With this book, Gilbert shows us that understanding the sources of our own happiness can help us more effectively navigate our way through life and can lead to greater overall satisfaction and contentment.
