The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy – What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny by Neil Howe, William Strauss

The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy by Neil Howe is a sweeping historical portrait of America that shows how the unpredictable rhythms of history shape the future. Through careful analysis of previous generational cycles, Howe predicts a fourth turning – a period of crisis that could potentially bring greatness to the nation or potentially bring about its ruin.

Howe begins by offering a brief history of generational cycles in America, showing how new generations are shaped by the events of their past. He identifies four key generational types – Prophets, Nomads, Heroes, and Artists – and shows how the unique outlooks and behaviors of each generational type have shaped American history and culture over the past 500 years. He explains that these generational types repeat every 80-90 years – a pattern known as the saeculum.

This cycle has been closely correlated with some of America’s greatest times of crisis. Howe uses the Revolutionary War, Civil War, and Great Depression as examples of fourth turnings – periods of sudden and intense stress upon the nation’s collective values, leading to huge leaps forward in history. The fourth turning, if Howe is correct, will bring another such period.

So what will this period of crisis look like? Howe asserts that it will be composed of four distinct elements – an erosion of public trust and confidence in government, rapidly disintegrating social order, a major economic downturn, and a spiritual upheaval. These events, says Howe, will shift the tone of the national conversation, making it much more powerful and destabilizing than before.

Given America’s current situation – increasing polarization, a weakened economy, and an increasingly fractured social order – Howe believes that the nation is preparing for a fourth turning to occur. This turning could be a time of unprecedented greatness and innovation, or it could potentially be a period of crippling strife and unrest.

Howe’s book does not provide a roadmap for navigating the fourth turning, or for confronting what he calls the “national crisis of meaning”. Instead, it serves as a warning to be prepared and to look back to history for clues as to what may come. It also seeks to inspire us to embrace change, to embrace a sense of shared purpose, and to look forward to the “rendezvous with destiny” that awaits America in its fourth turning.

All in all, The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy is an informative and enlightening read. Howe provides a clear and concise breakdown of the cycle of generational turnover in the nation’s history, and details the frighteningly plausible scenarios of what a fourth turning could look like. It is a must-read for those seeking to better understand America’s current state and to prepare for what lies ahead.