The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability before Pascal by James Franklin

In The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability before Pascal, James Franklin explores the history of evidence and probability in the physical sciences, supported by the mathematical theories of Blaise Pascal. Franklin examines the early roots of the modern scientific method and shows how the ideas of evidence and probability have been used to make judgments that could not be confidently resolved on a mathematical basis.

Relying heavily on archives, legal records, and much neglected theoretical works, Franklin paints a detailed picture of an intricately intermingled web of knowledge that tied together the seventeenth-century cultural and physical sciences. Written in engaging and often entertaining prose, the book illuminates how chance and conjecture were used to explain, predict, and treat illness, interpret the stars, and better understand the physical universe. Franklin also looks at how different cultures and societies used evidence and probability.

At the heart of the book lies Pascal and his mathematical theories. In the late 17th century, Pascal sought to use mathematical techniques to explain and understand the physical universe. Franklin argues that Pascal developed the concept of probability by applying evidence to a randomly generated set of numbers. He goes on to demonstrate how this concept of probability was taken up by others in the scientific community who saw the benefit of applying randomness or “chance” to their investigations.

Franklin argues that the work of Pascal and his contemporaries had a profound effect on the development of the scientific method. He points to the development of experimental methods by 17th and 18th century scientists as evidence of the impact Pascal’s theories had on the physical sciences. Franklin also looks at the development of the scientific method in other contexts, such as medicine, economics, and law.

The Science of Conjecture paints an fascinating and vivid picture of the world of the 17th and 18th century scientists who relied on evidence and probability before the advent of modern scientific methods. Franklin’s reach is impressive, making connections between science, economics, and the law, and depicting the complex networks of information that underpinned their thinking. His argument that Pascal and his peers had such a profound effect on our modern scientific method is persuasive and compelling.

This book is ideal for those with an interest in the history of the scientific method, or for anyone looking to better understand how modern science and mathematics came to be intertwined. Franklin’s scholarly approach helps to make the ideas of evidence and probability accessible to the average reader, while his entertaining anecdotes make the book enjoyable to read. For anyone looking to learn more about the development of the scientific method, The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability before Pascal provides a comprehensive and thoroughly researched look at the work of Pascal and his contemporaries.