Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts by Annie Duke

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts by Annie Duke offers a compelling approach to making decisions in a world where outcomes are often uncertain. The book, recently released in 2019, provides an invaluable resource for those looking to make better decisions knowing that the future cannot be seen. Drawing from her success as an accomplished poker player and her experience as a business consultant, Duke explains why the traditional approach of making decisions based on facts and data often leads to suboptimal outcomes. Instead, she presents an enticing argument for using probability and odds to think through different paths and make decisions in times of doubt.

The crux of Duke’s argument is that although we live in a world that is filled with uncertainty and unknowns, we can utilize mental models and skillset derived from related fields such as poker to make better decisions. Thinking in Bets provides a framework comprised of several steps that can help anyone hone their decision-making process. These steps include clarifying your goal, assessing the range of outcomes and associated probabilities, and building an action plan based on risk assessment.

Duke believes that by shifting the narrative from “win or lose” to “reward and risk”, we can make smarter decisions when reliable facts are missing. To illustrate this, she brings forth relatable examples from her own experience as a successful poker player, business consultant and decision maker. At its heart, Thinking in Bets is about understanding how to manage the uncertainty surrounding us by understanding our own strengths and weaknesses, weighing risks and rewards, and learning from our mistakes. Duke’s primary thesis is that the best way to win at the game of life is to appreciate that there are no certainties, be comfortable with ambivalence and recognize that comparing outcomes with objectives is the best way to make better decisions.

Thinking in Bets provides an essential guide to a new way of thinking that can be applied in a variety of contexts. Whether it is a business decision or an everyday life choice, the book gives readers insight on how to broadly assess the available evidence and use uncertainty to our advantage. Through many real-world examples and case studies, Thinking in Bets shows us how to use observation and probability as a tool for making informed decisions in times of uncertainty.