Perfectly Confident: How to Calibrate Your Decisions Wisely by Don A. Moore

If you’re looking for a way to better calibrate your decisions and make wise choices, Perfectly Confident by Don A. Moore is a must-read book. In it, Moore dives into the science and psychology of decision-making and provides tips and tricks for honing one’s ability to make decisions wisely in any situation.

At the heart of Perfectly Confident is the idea that our ability to make sound choices is rooted in confidence. Departing from the traditional view that confidence is a personality trait or innate tendency, Moore offers an alternate possibility: belief in recognized information. According to Moore, when we have high confidence in our choice-making capabilities, it is because we have learned to quickly recognize and understand the information available to us and to trust our judgment in applying it.

This new perspective on confidence is explored in depth throughout the book. Moore breaks down the different elements of confident decision-making and how to become more confident in our choices. He explains that having the courage to trust one’s intuition can lead to better, more sound decisions. At the same time, Moore advises caution, warning against blind faith in information or intuitions.

One of the useful techniques for making better choices outlined in Perfectly Confident is Bayes’ Theorem – a rigorous mathematical system for reasoning over probabilistic data. Moore demonstrates how understanding of Bayes’ Theorem can be used to modify our confidence in relation to explicitly acknowledged information. He also provides practical application exercises for readers to hone their abdominal decision-making skills with Bayes’ Theorem.

In addition to exploring the mathematics of confidence, Moore also covers cognitive conditioning – the application of psychology and neuroscience in decision-making. He provides insight into the ways that unconscious biases shape our decisions and how to be aware of them and use them to our advantage. He delves into the fundamental differences between confident and overconfident decision makers, and how to recognize patterns of overconfidence in our own lives.

Though Perfectly Confident is certainly rooted in science, it is also an accessible and easy-to-read book. Moore addresses the science of confidence not in cold data, but in personal stories and anecdotes, making the book relevant to both scientists and laypeople alike. The end goal is to apply the science to real-life decision-making in order to make wise choices and calibrate our confidence.

Perfectly Confident is an informative and helpful guide for anyone looking to understand the science of confidence and make smarter decisions in their life. Armed with the tips and tricks outlined in the book, readers can develop the confidence to recognize and accept the information they need to make informed and wise choices.