Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, by Philip E. Tetlock, is a groundbreaking book that examines the important role forecasting accurately plays in making decisions in the modern world, and reveals innovative new methods to enhance our accuracy in predicting the future. Tetlock draws upon his decades of experience as a psychologist, political scientist, and longtime researcher on human judgment and decision-making to share his unique perspectives on the critical importance of superforecasting as a way to successfully navigate an uncertain future. Through his research, Tetlock suggests that there is a class of ‘superforecasters’ – people who have a knack for accurately predicting outcomes in a wide range of contexts, and shows readers how to become one of them.

The book begins by defining what superforecasting is and the important role it plays in today’s decision making. Tetlock argues that most people make predictions that are based on imperfect or outdated information, or inconsistent and incomplete data. He points out that making accurate forecasts relies on using good data, asking important questions, and using the right approaches to ensure accuracy. People who practice superforecasting, or ‘superforecasters,’ are able to do this in order to tackle difficult, long-term problems. tetlock outlines how this kind of predictive power isn’t something that can be acquired simply through expertise, which makes the methods presented in the book so useful and significant.

The remaining chapters of the book provide readers with a wealth of advice and tools to help them become better forecasters. These include: identifying what factors have the biggest impact on the outcome, learning how to develop careful objective probability estimates, and pinpointing the sources of feedback that can propel superforecasting. Tetlock also offers concrete strategies to mend systematic errors in judgment, emphasizing the importance of humility when approaching problems. He also provides specific processes and tools to help readers identify and apply the best strategies and resources when making predictions.

Overall, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, by Philip E. Tetlock is an important book for anyone looking to improve their forecasting skills. Through his extensive research, Tetlock has uncovered methods and strategies which, when applied correctly, can help make predictions more accurate. Moreover, Tetlock is aware that superforecasting is not something that can be learned overnight – it takes practice, knowledge, constant self-reflection and a sense of humility – but that it is something that anyone can learn to do. Superforecasting lays out a clear and compelling path for readers to follow to become better at predicting outcomes and successfully navigating the uncertain future.